Friday, 9 Nov 2001
MARRAKECH, Morocco
The irony of the climate change negotiations is that the crucial ministerial conclaves in the final two days may be crunch time for the environment, but for most delegates and observers it’s what one veteran around here calls “going down to the pub time.”
Searching for something to do, Jason and Rob lobby a portrait of the late King of Morocco.
Photo: Climate Network Europe.
It’s true that some people remain at the ready: a few high-powered NGO lobbyists whose opinions are trusted by ministers, for example, and a crack team of specialized lawyers and techies who parachute into terminological fixes to get delegates out of jams. But come 10 p.m. last night, most people settled into the restaurant next to the conference center to swap gossip and sample the local malted beverages. By 1 a.m., with no deal surfacing, it seemed sensible to retire to ECO for the final tirade of the fortnight.
We’ve been burned by expectations of imminent deals before. Last year in The Hague, NGOs set up a round-the-clock vigil, with ministers holed up in a back room to finalize a package. As dawn broke, so did the talks. John Prescott of the U.K. stormed out, scattering exhausted press and lobbyists in his wake. Later, he blamed the failure on the fatigue of the French minister Dominique Voynet, who promptly retorted by calling him a chauvinist pig.
In Bonn, the deciding plenary was announced for 10 p.m., then midnight, then 2 a.m., then TBA. Delegates passed out on sofas, under tables, on rows of chairs, sleeping with one eye open for the return of the negotiators. When the triumphant ministers finally reconvened around noon, the few sensible souls who had gone home for a good night’s sleep were the object of secret envy.
Can you tell me the way to the little boy’s room?
Photo: Climate Network Europe.
This morning, the crowd milling around the conference center had the air of a wedding party waiting for the bride and groom. It was clear, though, that the groom had cold feet. In fact (and unfortunately for this metaphor), there are four grooms, whose names come as no surprise: Japan, Canada, Russia, and Australia.
Each of the “gang of four” finds itself in a tough situation that may be affecting its judgment. The Australian government faces an election tomorrow and is trailing in the polls; according to national protocol the government is in “caretaker mode,” and the negotiators here should not be preempting the policy of the next government. Could there be a last-ditch attempt here to sabotage the deal? They have already been trying to portray Wednesday’s retreat on compliance as a strategic victory. To paraphrase one Australian commentator, the delegation here is enjoying an indiscreet liaison with a dead sheep and calling it a party.
Canada has fought hard against tough environmental conditions, keeping its head firmly buried in the oil sands. This has been a wonderful opportunity for the Quebecois minister to parade his territory’s far more progressive plans to — sacre bleu! — reduce emissions. With disparities this glaring in foreign policy issues, surely the only option for Quebec is secession.
Meanwhile, Russia’s head delegate, fearing that he might have to share the adulation of the crowds with others, has sent all his colleagues home. Rumor has it that he has adopted up to 20 distinct positions over the past 24 hours — a veritable negotiators’ Kama Sutra.
Japan’s minister was overheard this morning promising Russia all the support it needs. This could rank as one of the most spectacular blank checks in recent history, but even assuming the minister’s promise is confined to Protocol issues, it puts Japan in a bind. Japan has repeatedly made noise about ratifying by 2002; if Russian intransigence causes the agreement to be further delayed, this would be nearly impossible.
Those, insofar as we can make out, are the facts. But there is a far richer vein of rumor and innuendo to be tapped. Delegates and observers busily exchange information ranging from the wildly inaccurate to the totally apocryphal, and indeed it is hard to resist the temptation to add to the misinformation maelstrom. Djibouti is demanding credit for its forests. The Portuguese minister causes consternation by actually turning up for a meeting. The Democratic Republic of Wambooboo throws the talks into chaos by renouncing the whole deal, but then is found not to exist. Go ahead, it’s your turn now; Ohio independently joins negotiations at the 11th hour, mayhap?
And so the waiting game continues. Perhaps our hosts have some insight about when the COP will conclude: The Moroccan minister optimistically scheduled a final dinner at 8:30 p.m. in the “Complex Chez Ali,” apparently a marriage of Disneyland and Ali Baba.
The question is, will it be a reception or a wake?
