And now for the IPCC report’s regional assessments, continued from yesterday:
By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change.
The area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons, and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition in the continent. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent by 2020.
Toward the end of the 21st century, projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5-10 percent of GDP.
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades.
Freshwater availability in Central, South, East, and Southeast Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease due to climate change — which, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s.
It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20 percent in East and Southeast Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century.
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrheal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in hydrological cycle associated with global warming.
Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically-rich sites, including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics.
Production from agriculture and forestry by 2030 is projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increased drought and fire.
As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 …
Nearly all European regions are anticipated to be negatively affected by some future impacts of climate change, and these will pose challenges to many economic sectors.
Health risks due to heat waves are projected to increase.
Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia. Semi-arid vegetation will tend to be replaced by arid-land vegetation. There is a risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in many areas of tropical Latin America.
Changes in precipitation patterns and the disappearance of glaciers are projected to significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation.
In drier areas, climate change is expected to lead to salinization and desertification of agricultural land. Productivity of some important crops are projected to decrease and livestock productivity to decline, with adverse consequences for food security.
Sea-level rise is projected to cause increased risk of flooding in low-lying areas.
In the polar regions, the main projected biophysical effects are reductions in thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in natural ecosystems with detrimental effects on many organisms including migratory birds, mammals and higher predators.
In the Arctic, additional impacts include reductions in the extent of sea ice and permafrost, increased coastal erosion, and an increase in the depth of permafrost seasonal thawing … Detrimental impacts would include those on infrastructure and traditional indigenous ways of life.
Beneficial impacts would include reduced heating costs and more navigable northern sea routes.
Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher latitudes, have characteristics which make them especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea-level rise, and extreme events.
Get Grist in your inbox