peak avocado

Here’s how the avocado-toast bubble will burst.

Avocado prices are shooting through the stratosphere. They’re so expensive that a real-estate mogul in Australia has blamed city-dwellers’ struggles with high housing costs on the millennial love affair with avocado toast. Avocados are about as trendy as a fruit can get (witness the avocado bar in Brooklyn).

Demand is high (the average American now eats seven pounds of avocados a year) and supply is low. A trend toward drier climate in growing regions, and Trumpian trade wars could make avocados still more precious. But there’s hope in form of basic economics.

Agricultural economist Marc Bellemare points out that when prices skyrocket farmers plant more avocado trees. It takes three years after planting for trees to produce fruit. During this lag time, prices keep climbing, and other farmers will decide to get in on the game. When the new orchards start pumping out avocados, prices could slump.

So help is on the way. In a few years, you still won’t be able to afford rent in a trendy part of town, but maybe your avocado smoothie will be cheaper.