COPENHAGEN — A three-way battle over a historic pact on climate change loomed in Copenhagen on Friday with the emergence of an official, seven-page draft blueprint likely to spark fierce week-long haggling.
The text, seen by AFP, sees targets of limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 degrees Celsius (2.7 or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
It also foresees a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol, the climate treaty that was boycotted by the United States.
But it is vague on climate funding; does not spell out a deadline for concluding a legally binding treaty; and does not include a year by which emissions must peak — all key negotiation issues.
Analysts said the draft points to rival positions staked out by three blocs: highly vulnerable poor countries, emerging giant economies, and rich nations.
The document is to be submitted to environment ministers from around the world, with the goal of having it endorsed at a summit on Dec. 18 to be attended by more than 110 leaders.
“It’s really good news that we now have one text that we can all focus on. It’s a good step forward,” said Kaisa Kosonen of Greenpeace. “Now, we have to work on it. There are a lot of choices open. You can negotiate many different outcomes from this text.”
Kim Carstensen of WWF was also upbeat. “The text provides a basis to make the right political decisions. It contains many gaps, exposes rifts, but also clearly shows that an agreement is possible.”
If all goes well, a political agreement in Copenhagen would be followed by meetings in 2010 under the 194 nation U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change to flesh out key details. The global pact would take effect from 2013, after current pledges expire under the UNFCCC’s Kyoto Protocol.
The proposed draft is put forward by the Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action, or AWG-LCA, one of the two negotiating tracks in the 12-day talks in Copenhagen. The text carries many brackets, which denote disagreement.
On the question of a target for warming, it reads:
Parties shall cooperate to avoid dangerous climate change, in keeping with the ultimate objective of the Convention, recognizing [the broad scientific view] that the increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to exceed [2 C] [1.5 C].
The lower temperature is embraced by small island states and many African nations badly threatened by climate change, while the higher target has been supported by rich nations and emerging giants such as China, India, and Brazil.
The draft leaves open three possible targets for the overall reduction of global carbon emissions by 2020, compared with 1990 levels: by 50 percent, by 80 percent, and by 95 percent.
Industrialized countries favor the 50 percent goal, while major emerging economies led by China have balked at any such a target unless rich countries assume the near totality of the burden.
For rich countries, which acknowledge their historical responsibility for global warming, the bracketed options for CO2 cuts by 2050 range from 75-85 percent, “at least 80-95 percent,” and “more than 95 percent,” all measured against the same 1990 benchmark.
The text stands by a second, seven-year commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, the which runs out at the end of 2012. Because the U.S. didn’t sign on to Kyoto, U.S. emissions targets — and voluntary actions by developing countries — would be included in an “appendix” under the UNFCCC.
A draft text in an parallel negotiation pool, covering only parties to the Kyoto Protocol, calls for rich-country commitments of greenhouse-gas cuts of 30 to 40 percent by 2020 compared to 1990.
On the key question of funds to help poorer countries adopt lower carbon energy and shore up their defences against climate change, the draft text is vague. “Scaled-up, predictable, new and additional, and adequate funding shall be provided,” it says, but does not give figures.
The document allows for “fast-start” financing for three years starting in 2010 to help poor nations cope with warming, but does not specify an amount.
Rich countries have proposed $10 billion per year during this period. In Brussels on Friday, the European Union agreed to give 7.2 billion euros ($10.8 billion) over three years.
Claire Parker for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), an intergovernmental environmental group, said the draft reflected the interests of three blocs, each with differing ambitions. “The growing number of countries supporting the 1.5 C goal is going to change the negotiations very strongly. I can’t see how the three blocs that have emerged here are going to find a consensus in this talks,” she said.
In an early sign of the tensions ahead, China demanded that rich nations spell out long-term commitments on funding.
Meanwhile, the United States contested key elements of the, saying proposals on carbon emission curbs were “unbalanced”.
“In many respects, the text is a constructive step, however, the U.S. doesn’t see the mitigation as a basis for negotiation,” said U.S. chief negotiator Todd Stern. Emerging giant economies were not being pressed enough to slash their carbon output, and this made the text “unbalanced on that particular point,” he told a press conference.
“If we are talking about the need to keep the temperature increase below 2.0 C [3.6 F] rise as compared to pre-industrial levels … you can’t even have that discussion if the major developing countries are not taking a major role,” Stern told journalists. “This structure reflects ‘old think,’ if you will. We can’t solve the problem that way,” Stern said. “We don’t want to start the negotiations from that basis.”
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