Can hurricanes affect voter turnout?

In the past few weeks, millions of people across the Southeast have been affected by hurricanes Helene and Milton. Grist’s Zoya Teirstein spoke to disaster researchers and political scientists to find out whether the hurricanes will suppress voter turnout and ultimately change the course of the presidential election. 

Here’s what they said:

Photo: Ayurella Horn-Muller / Grist

I think a lot of voters have already made up their minds about who they’re going to vote for ... A lot of western North Carolina is very Republican. The concern is that if the folks who are unable to make their voices heard in the election are different from the rest of the electorate, then that can skew the election results. The inverse is true in Tampa and Saint Petersburg, which is maybe a little bit bluer than the rest of Florida.

KEVIN MORRIS SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW AND VOTING POLICY SCHOLAR WITH THE BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE’S DEMOCRACY PROGRAM

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Voters have already made up their minds

Past research has shown that ... large-scale natural hazards depress voter turnout because people are busy repairing homes, struggling to deal with insurance companies, [and] filing paperwork with FEMA or the Small Business Administration ... On the other hand, for many people believing that they should have received more aid from the government, and for those who believe that they received useful aid, they may be more likely to vote to show their feelings.

DANIEL ALDRICH POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AND DISASTER RESEARCHER AT NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY

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Natural hazards depress voter turnout

The distribution of FEMA disaster assistance in the aftermath of a hurricane tends to help the president's party in the upcoming elections. Receiving FEMA disaster aid will generally improve turnout among voters affiliated with the president's party — i.e., registered Democrats in this year's elections. All else being equal, a precinct that receives more FEMA disaster aid will likely exhibit a slightly higher Democratic vote share in next month's elections.

JOWEI CHEN ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

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FEMA and the Democratic vote share

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