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Global warming, in capsule form

In the midst of a long post on Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer's coal-to-liquid-fuel plans, Oil Drummer Stuart Staniford provides a handy one-paragraph-long roundup of evidence on global warming. The next time someone you know asks about it, just cut and paste this paragraph and send it to them. Warming cliff notes!

[W]e are reaching the point where we can see that we are starting to make massive, probably irreversible, changes to our climate. The glaciers are in full retreat almost everywhere, the Arctic is melting (with total melting of the summer sea ice possible, though not certain, as early as 2020), the permafrost is melting, and releasing large amounts of methane, which is a very powerful global warming gas, while in the last thirty years, droughts have doubled due to warming, hurricanes are much more intense all over the globe, and are showing up in places they never did before in recorded history. Scientists have been projecting changes in ocean circulation, and lo-and-behold, they are starting to show up, including changes to the North Atlantic Circulation, although major change here was previously thought unlikely this century. There is some possibility of changes in deepwater circulation destabilizing methane hydrates in the ocean, particularly in South East Asian deeps. Oh, and the Greenland ice sheet is now melting much faster than climatologists expected, and the West Antarctic ice sheet is starting to collapse, though again, this was previously thought unlikely. Also paleoclimatological studies have made it clear that in the past the climate abruptly flipped between modes, sometimes with dramatic change in as little as three years. And we are making rapid changes in carbon dioxide, known to be critically important in regulating the temperature of this sensitive climatic system for a century now.

As he says, "maybe there's some scientific doubt still on any individual piece of the picture, but the gestalt is starting to look extremely alarming." Yes.

Unsurprisingly, the Bush administration is already screwing up reconstruction

It's a couple weeks before Halloween, but if you're looking for a nice horror story, try the LA Times piece on post-Katrina reconstruction. You know how sometimes President Bush makes big, rousing speeches full of earnest declarations, with his chest all puffed out, making that one annoying hand gesture, and then in subsequent weeks adds several carefully staged photo-ops, and then his administration doesn't follow up on anything and whatever the subject of the speech was descends into chaotic factionalism and incompetence because, really, what Bush likes is feeling like he's being Historical and he doesn't care for the nuts and bolts of governing at all?

Yeah, this is one of those times.

I’m so, like, over it

You know what's really boring? Affected, world-weary cynicism from post-collegiate hipsters. Didn't that go out in the 90s?

(via TH)

WC action

Worldchanging is doing a book. And hiring. FYI.

Peak oil hits USA Today

There's nothing particularly new in it, but it's the front page of USA Today, so I feel obliged to link: "Debate brews: Has oil production peaked?"

It's typical mainstream journalism, scrupulously "balanced" in that it gives both sides equal time and makes no effort to evaluate their respective credibility or the validity of their claims. But it's a complex topic, so I guess that's the best we can expect.

I suspect the average reader will come away from the piece thinking, "Ho hum, another group of alarmists crying about another alleged apocalypse ... wonder what's on TV?" Which is another way of saying: Peak oil won't have bite until it hurts average people, directly and for a sustained period of time. Such is life.

Why did it take so long?

Over on Wired's car blog Autopia, John Gartner reports:

Some of the heavyweights of chemical research are bonding together to use computer modeling to develop new automotive fuels. The nucleus of the group includes L'Institut Francais du Petrole, Dow Chemical, Chevron, and Reaction Design, plus auto companies Mitsubishi, Nissan, PSA Peugeot Citroen, and Toyota.

The group will use simulations to explore new chemical combinations that could lead to cleaner and higher performance fuels. This sounds like a worthwhile venture, but why did it take so long? It's not like computer modeling is new, but I guess the inevitably of petroleum scarcity is finally prompting cooperation.

Why? Maybe greed, power and short-sightedness? Or could it be ...

Coincidentally, Booz Allen Hamilton (which is a consulting firm and not a drunkard founding father) just issued a report saying that chemical companies who spend less on R&D actually grow faster than their competitors. Talking about snuffing out a spark...

2005 EMA Awards & “The West Wing”

Tomorrow night the Environmental Media Association will be hosting the 2005 EMA Awards in Los Angeles. From the EMA website:

What Is An Environmental Media Award?

First presented by the Environmental Media Association (EMA) in 1991, the Environmental Media Awards honor film and television productions that increase public awareness of environmental issues and inspire personal action on these issues. The Awards recognize writers, producers, directors, actors, and others in the entertainment industry who actively expressed their concern for the environment through their work. The Environmental Media Awards have also honored people in the entertainment industry who have gone above and beyond their peers in consistently including environmental practices, story lines and rolemodeling. Such honorees have included Keely and Pierce Brosnan, Jayni and Chevy Chase, Blythe Danner, Dave Matthews Band, Daryl Hannah, Alanis Morissette, Willie Nelson, Edward Norton, Rob Reiner and John Travolta.

For a list of nominees, check out the EMA press release. (Look for Grist coverage of the event later this week.)

In the "Television Episodic Drama" category, my fav The West Wing has been nominated (along with Boston Legal and House) for the episode titled "The Hubbert Peak." This past Sunday, The West Wing addressed another topic familiar to us here in Gristmill: intelligent design. Candidate for POTUS Matt Santos must have been reading Gristmill, as his reasoning for opposing teaching ID alongside evolution in public schools sounds very similar to Dave's post on the subject.

And apparently, NBC is promoting a "live debate" on Sunday, Nov. 6th for which you can submit questions. So hop to it! Here's mine: "How will your administration address the issue of climate change?" Let's see if they actually answer it, or at least any enviro question, on television.

But if submitting questions to a fictional presidential debate is not your thing, how about a poll:

Does a Bear Chapeau in the Woods?

British military still using real Canadian bear fur in funny hats Over the past 30 years, Britain’s Ministry of Defense has gradually replaced animal furs in ceremonial uniforms — e.g., leopard-skin hats for military drummers — with synthetics. But so far nothing has beaten real Canadian bear pelts for those goofy tall hats worn by […]

Oregon anti-land-use-planning measure ruled unconstitutional

This is big news: Last Friday, a judge in Oregon ruled that Measure 37 violates the state constitution.

To recap: Measure 37, which was approved overwhelmingly by Oregon voters last fall, required state or local governments either to compensate landowners, or to waive development restrictions, whenever land-use rules reduced the value of private property. The measure was strongly supported by timber interests, who faced limits on logging near streams and sensitive areas. And its passage wreaked havoc on the state's growth management system -- which had been largely successful at protecting farmland from suburban sprawl -- while creating an administrative nightmare for state and local governments who faced a deluge of complex Measure 37 cases.

As written, Measure 37 was supposed to apply only to people who bought their land before land use and zoning laws came into effect. People who bought after that, allegedly, understood what they were getting into, and weren't entitled to compensation. But the judge ruled that this violated the "equal privileges and immunities" clause of Oregon's constitution, because it created two separate classes of landowners: one with special rights and remedies for diminished land value, one without.

Last Friday's ruling invalidating the measure was definitive and sweeping. But it's not the end of the debate -- not by a long shot. Appeals are already planned, and Measure 37's supporters will undoubtedly be back soon with another -- perhaps even more insidious -- property rights proposal. And if I had to guess, the proponents of Measure 37 will be looking to open up the system to all landowners, not just recent purchasers. If that were to pass, of course, it would make the chaos engendered by Measure 37 look tame in comparison.

Rise Up Sweet Island

A recommendation from Jamais at WC sent me back to Rise Up Sweet Island (it drifted across my radar a while back but I never took a close look). I'm glad he flagged it, because it's pretty amazing.

It's part of a larger site called Notes from the Road, a travelogue/blog with superb original photography from amateur traveler Erik Gauger.

Sweet Island is a narrative about a tiny West Indian island called Guana Cay, the pristine coral reefs around it, a proposal for an "ecologically sensitive" golf course on it, and the corruption and absurdity that ensue. It's difficult to summarize but fascinating to read and sumptuously illustrated. Check it out.