Coal use is declining in the U.S. and will likely decline further in the wake of new EPA rules. What will happen to the U.S. coal that isn’t burned in the U.S.? Brad Plumer answers: We’ll probably export it. If that’s true, then there won’t be much net climate benefit; the emissions will just come from Asia instead of North America.

And indeed, this is the next big fight for the environmental movement: blocking coal export terminals.

Of course, no environmental campaign would be complete without a Michael Levi post explaining why they’re doing it wrong, and right on cue, here it is. The question Levi raises is this: Is the coal the U.S. exports supplementing or displacing foreign coal? If it’s supplementing, then blocking exports would reduce emissions. But if it’s displacing, it won’t. Other countries will just burn coal from elsewhere.