The Global Business Network recently published a new paper — with a new approach — on the impacts of climate change.
Instead of beginning with carbon emissions and then calculating, with increasing uncertainty, the impacts on climate, the impacts of those changes on biophysical systems, and then the impacts of biophysical systems changes on your life, etc., down to fourth- and fifth-order effects, they take a different approach. They begin with "human and natural systems that are already in a state of dynamic tension" (i.e., vulnerable to being tipped past a tipping point) and then predict what might happen if climate change is added to these already stressed systems.
This, I think, is a better way of looking at the scope of the problem that climate change poses. But they say it better themselves. Go take a gander.