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A closer look at the argument for climate change underestimation

My previous post debunked an article that argued scientists have seriously overestimated climate change. Now let's look at the evidence for a serious underestimation of climate change.

To do that, we must understand the fatal flaw with the IPCC's over-reliance on the poorly named "equilibrium climate sensitivity" (ECS). Recall that the ECS is the "equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric (equivalent) CO2 concentration," which the IPCC's 2007 Fourth Assessment Report concluded was 2 to 4.5°C.

You might think that the ECS tells you how much the planet's temperature will rise if humans emit enough CO2 to double its atmospheric concentration. But it doesn't. It is just a theoretical construct. It tells you only how much the planet's temperature will rise if CO2 concentrations double and then are magically frozen.

That's because the ECS omits key carbon cycle feedbacks that a rise in the planet's temperature will likely trigger. For instance, a doubling of CO2 to 550 ppm will lead to the melting of the permafrost and the release of huge amounts of carbon currently frozen in it. These amplifying (or positive) feedbacks are the main subject of this post.

U.S. energy consumption decreased from 2005 to 2006

According to new data from the DOE, total U.S. energy consumption actually declined from 2005 to 2006, in large part due to an increasing demand for renewables. Rather fascinating stuff.

Details here.

Another guy with his hair on fire

Another good Scientific blogging interview is "Urgency and Global Warming: An Interview with Martin I. Hoffert." I'm tempted to quote the whole thing, but instead you should just go read it. He's much more of a techno-optimist than I think is warranted, but if we all shared his sense of urgency, it would probably be more realistic.

(Apparently he hasn't read The Black Swan either.)

Responsible climate policy means reducing transportation emissions

In the Northwest, it's impossible to address climate change without doing something about transportation. Take a look at this chart showing CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Washington.

In Washington (as in Oregon), everything else pales in comparison to the emissions that come from transportation. In fairness, the chart above shows only emission from fossil fuels. But fossil fuels represent better than four-fifths of the state's entire portfolio of greenhouse-gas emissions [MS Word doc]. They're also the emissions that are best understood, and by far the most practical to cover in carbon legislation, such as cap-and-trade systems.

Whether we aim to reduce our climate emissions by 80 percent below 1990 levels (the amount that scientists say is necessary in the developed world if we're to slow climate change) or by 50 percent (the target that the state's leaders have proposed), there's pretty much no way to get around making big cuts in transportation emissions.

On a related note, the Western Climate Initiative -- the group of western states and provinces setting a joint climate strategy -- just announced their shared target. I was actually a bit surprised when I saw the numbers.

And it’s goood …

The NYT has done itself proud with not one but two op-eds this week pushing for energy efficiency — first Nic Kristof’s, and now the The Mustache of Understanding. I guess the idea is gaining traction. The Mustache references a potentially revolutionary change being pushed by Duke Energy’s Jim Rogers. (On Rogers, the cynical should […]

Brown Knows

San Bernardino County, Calif., will account for greenhouse-gas emissions One of the largest, fastest-growing, most sprawl-happy counties in the U.S. will have to measure its greenhouse-gas emissions and set targets for reducing them by 2010, according to a legal settlement announced Tuesday. California’s San Bernardino County had been sued by State Attorney General Jerry Brown […]

With a Cherry on Top?

Judge allows Klamath River lawsuit to go forward If we may paraphrase: Energy company PacifiCorp has asked a federal judge, “Pretty please, can you dismiss a lawsuit claiming our Klamath River dams are polluting the river and killing salmon?” and the judge has responded, “No, sirree, see you in court.” The Klamath, which runs along […]

Living in Deforest

Amazon land settlement said to increase deforestation The Brazilian government is looking into accusations that sketchy sustainable-development deals may have led to increased logging in the Amazon rainforest. After an eight-month investigation, Greenpeace has reported that Brazil’s national land-reform agency housed thousands of poor families in rainforest areas valuable to the timber industry, then looked […]

My My, Is It 2007 Already?

Judge requires feds to submit climate research plan, impact assessment The Bushies are big stinkin’ lawbreakers, a federal judge ruled this week. A 1990 federal law requires the U.S. government to provide a scientific report every four years on climate change and its effects on the environment, the economy, and public health, but the Bush […]

All Pact and Ready to Go

Six Western states, two Canadian provinces agree to regional climate pact Yesterday, the leaders of six Western states and two Canadian provinces agreed to their own regional climate pact, aiming to cut greenhouse-gas emissions to 15 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. The Western Climate Initiative aims to have a cap-and-trade system in place by […]