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‘Global warming stopped in 1998’–Only if you flagrantly cherry pick

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: Global temperatures have been trending down since 1998. Global warming is over.

Answer: At the time, 1998 was a record high year in both the CRU and the NASA GISS analyses. In fact, it blew away the previous record by .2 degrees C. (That previous record went all the way back to 1997, by the way!)

According to NASA, it was elevated far above the trend line because 1998 was the year of the strongest El Nino of the century. Choosing that year as a starting point is a classic cherry pick and demonstrates why it is necessary to remove chaotic year-to year-variability (aka: weather) by smoothing out the data. Looking at CRU's graph below, you can see the result of that smoothing in black.

Looks like she might make it

It looks like Jennifer "alternative fuels" Granholm is going to pull it out in Michigan.

Just may be going down

Larry J. Sabato's crystal ball:

November 6, 2006 Update:

Jerry McNerney (D) will unseat Rep. Richard Pombo (R). Our sources on the ground tell us that momentum is firmly in McNerney's court and that late campaign help from Bill Clinton and scores of environmental groups is giving Resources Committee Chair Pombo a run for his money. Schwarzenegger's get-out-the-vote operation may yet save Pombo, but we will go out on a limb and tap McNerney to win in an upset.

Not green

Virginia's George Allen, better known for other offenses, also has Senate's worst lifetime voting record (PDF) on green affairs, as measured by the League of Conservation Voters. Watch out for that tree.

Am I the only one …

... stressed out to the point of physical illness about tomorrow?

In other news, remember that big kerfuffle over the Sierra Club endorsing Republican Lincoln Chafee? Well, it looks like Chafee's going to win by a narrow margin -- but according to at least one report, he may not be a Republican for long ...

Cliff’s Notes on saving corals and mangroves

Yo-ho-ho mateys! Me hopes ye've not yet thrown ye-selves to Davey Jones' locker over the depressing fishy news of late. Begad, buckos, I could cry enough tears to fill me empty noggin o' rum twice over ... not that I did, mind ye ... it's just the ol' patch makes me eye water a bit. Arrr ...

But in the interest of putting a positive spin on things, I point you to the climate survival guides recently published by two major conservation groups. One focuses on coral reefs -- the "tropical rainforests of the ocean" -- and the other on mangroves -- actual forests near the oceans (confused yet?). And both offer strategies that could protect these fragile ecosystems in the wake of climate change -- even if we can't reverse climate change itself. Think of the reports as wonkier versions of the Worst Case Scenario Handbook.

Eric Ritz, youth-activism promoter, answers Grist’s questions

What work do you do? I’m the founder and executive director of Global Inheritance. What does your organization do? We reinvent activism for today’s young generation. Our initiatives focus on the power of creativity to communicate and push for progressive social change while rejecting conflict. Global Inheritance targets various subcultures, developing campaigns that cater specifically […]

Misleading campaigns and unconstitutional initiatives

In my previous posts on the 2006 takings ballot measures (here, here, and here), I promised I'd get out the tinfoil hat and talk conspiracy theory. So here goes ...

Energy independence is hot campaign topic

Tomorrow is election day. Get yourself to a polling booth.

In Washington, the buzz right now is that Democrats will win a slight majority in the House and fall slightly short of a majority in the Senate.

I don't have a crystal ball, but whatever the outcome, it now looks possible that a number of freshmen in next year's Congress will have been elected, in part, on a platform of energy independence/alternative energy. Of course, elevating a political issue and solving a problem are different matters. There are many ways to imagine best intentions turning into pork-laden boondoggles (read: more ethanol subsidies). But first you have to get people to pay attention -- and to believe a different future is possible. That seems to be happening this election cycle.

Candidates in competitive races, from Jon Tester to Harold Ford, Claire McCaskill to Maria Cantwell, are running ads on the theme of alternative energy. Windmills appear in at least 17 spots.

Fed up with breast-milk contamination, mothers form a national activist group

Mary Brune looked worried. “I don’t know what the problem is,” she said, peering at the generator in the grass. Attached to it was a blower that was, in turn, attached to a puddle of yellow nylon. The next morning, that puddle was supposed to inflate to become a giant rubber ducky, the centerpiece of […]