James Hansen
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On ‘scientific reticence’ and sea-level rise
Sea level rise of 5 meters in one century? Even if most scientists will not say so publicly, that catastrophe is a real possibility, according to the director of NASA's Goddard Institute Of Space Studies.
It may seem like I single Hansen out for recommended reading. But that's only because he:
- is the nation's top climatologist
- writes prolifically
- speaks with unusually bluntness for a scientist
- has been more right than just about any climate scientist
He has written a terrific piece for the open-access Environmental Research Letters on "Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise":
I suggest that a "scientific reticence" is inhibiting the communication of a threat of a potentially large sea level rise. Delay is dangerous because of system inertias that could create a situation with future sea level changes out of our control. I argue for calling together a panel of scientific leaders to hear evidence and issue a prompt plain-written report on current understanding of the sea level change issue.
I could not agree more. In researching my book Hell and High Water, many leading climate scientists spoke to me candidly off the record that they share Hansen's fear. Fortunately, more and more are speaking out.
Hansen is especially concerned that sea level rise is nonlinear:
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New Hansen paper
Today the Oil Drum linked to a James Hansen released paper analyzing the impact of peak oil, peak gas, and peak coal on the likely emissions of carbon. Hansen notes that most of our emissions scenarios have thus far failed to account for whether the carbon will even be there to burn.
Plenty of graphy goodness, but what I took away was this: There's just enough oil and gas left in the ground to take us up to, or maybe a bit over, the 450 parts per million of CO2 that climatologists worry about so much. This makes it imperative that we in the developed countries immediately phase out coal, the one supply of fossil carbon that can take us right over the cliff.
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How high and how fast?
How high and fast will sea levels rise? An important piece (PDF) by Stefan Rahmstorf in Science concludes:
A rise of over 1 m by 2100 for strong warming scenarios cannot be ruled out, because all that such a rise would require is that the linear relation of the rate of sea-level rise and temperature, which was found to be valid in the 20th century, remains valid in the 21st century.
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Live-blogged!
… is streaming live. Drama! Update [2007-3-19 8:57:46 by David Roberts]: Wow, this is squirm-inducing. Deutsch is on the stand. He is getting drilled. One member of the committee actually offered him a chance to apologize to Hansen. Update [2007-3-19 9:1:28 by David Roberts]: Oh, man. Chris Shays talking-points-I-got-from-some-right-wing-staffer vs. James Hansen I-know-WTF-I’m-talking-about. Advantage: Hansen. […]
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At last
Today is the occasion of "one hell of a hearing," as Rep. Henry Waxman’s Oversight Committee has another go as the subject of "Allegations of Political Interference with the Work of Government Climate Change Scientists." WaPo has the following folks testifying: Philip Cooney, former chief of staff for the White House Council on Environmental Quality; […]
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A nice profile
In the latest issue of Seed, Chris Mooney has a nice profile of legendary climate scientist James Hansen. Here’s the nut: Yet Hansen isn’t afraid of value judgments either. With increasing stridency, he has been articulating a very political, very moral premise: We can’t take much more human-induced greenhouse warming if we want to preserve […]
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Coal-bashing is hot new trend in Congress, science circles, and business world
Is King Coal about to be deposed? Climate scientists, key members of Congress, enviros, and the progressive wing of the business world are plotting a coup d’état. Regime change isn’t likely to come soon, but this resistance movement could significantly alter the way the pollution-spewing sovereign wields its power. James Hansen. Photo: Arnold Adle/NASA The […]
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Can greed get us out?
Billionaire Richard Branson will announce today in London a prize of $25 million to the inventor of a device that effectively reduces greenhouse gas concentrations. Although the participants are under a media embargo, American climatologist James Hansen -- who will serve as a judge of the potential inventions, along with English scientist James Lovelock and Australian author Tim Flannery -- did discuss the topic of geoengineering a solution to global warming this week in front of a large crowd at U.C. Santa Barbara, as part of a lecture he gave on the dangers of human-caused climate change.
