Last week I wrote about a coming report on world coal reserves from the Energy Group in Germany, based on the IEA World Energy Outlook 2006.
Here’s the report. The nut:
This analysis reveals that global coal production may still increase over the next 10 to 15 years by about 30 percent, mainly driven by Australia, China, the Former Soviet Union countries (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan) and South Africa. Production will then reach a plateau and will eventually decline thereafter. (my emphasis)
Note that the projections take into account climate policy:
The possible production growth until about 2020 according to this analysis is in line with the two demand scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the 2006 edition of the World Energy Outlook. However, the projected development beyond 2020 is only compatible with the IEA alternative policy scenario in which coal production is constrained by climate policy measures while the IEA reference scenario assumes further increasing coal consumption (and production) until at least 2030. According to our analysis, this will not be possible due to limited reserves.