Bush blames Congress’ failure to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for high gasoline prices. The administration’s own Energy Information Administration found otherwise in a 2004 Congressional-requested “Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in ANWR” (PDF):

It is expected that the price impact of ANWR coastal plain production might reduce world oil prices by as much as 30 to 50 cents per barrel [in 2025].

Don’t spend it all in one place, American public! (Note to Bush: There are 42 gallons in a barrel.) EIA continues:

Assuming that world oil markets continue to work as they do today, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could countermand any potential price impact of ANWR coastal plain production by reducing its exports by an equal amount.

Curses, foiled again!

Then again, it’s laughable of the EIA to think OPEC (or anyone else) will have any spare capacity in 2025. But that’s the EIA for you.

Now, in “fairness” to the EIA, they did report at the time that the 30 to 50 cents per barrel price is "relative to a projected 2025 world oil price of $27 per barrel (2002 dollars) in the AEO2004 reference case."

This mainly proves the EIA is really lousy at energy forecasting. But let’s give ANWR the benefit of the doubt and say it cuts gasoline prices one penny for every $27 per barrel increase in the price of oil. You can do your own calculations if you think gasoline prices will be double or more current levels in 2025 if we keep following Bush’s policies …

This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.