Yup, global warming is happening and humans seem to be to blame, according to an early draft of a long-awaited report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This new preliminary analysis by the IPCC, an international collaboration of top scientists sponsored by the U.N. and the World Meteorological Organization, comes to the same basic conclusions as the IPCC’s last major report in 1995, which found that “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” The new draft report predicts that the Earth’s surface will likely warm between 2 and 9 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, and that the warming we’ve already seen is “exceptional and unlikely to be solely natural in origin.”