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Next decade may see rapid warming, not cooling

The Nature article ($ub. req'd) that has caused so much angst about the possibility that we are entering a decade of cooling -- "Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector" -- has been widely misreported. I base this in part on direct communication with the lead author.

In fact, with the caveat from the authors that the study should be viewed as preliminary, and should not be used for year-by-year predictions, it is more accurate to say the Nature study is consistent with the following statements:

• The "coming decade" (2010 to 2020) is poised to be the warmest on record, globally.
• The coming decade is poised to see faster temperature rise than any decade since the authors' calculations began in 1960.
• The fast warming would likely begin early in the next decade -- similar to the 2007 prediction by the Hadley Center in Science (see "Climate forecast: hot -- and then very hot").
• The mean North American temperature for the decade from 2005 to 2015 is projected to be slightly warmer than the actual average temperature of the decade from 1993 to 2003.

Before explaining where the confusion came from -- mostly a misunderstanding of how the Nature authors use the phrase "next decade" -- let's see how the media covered it:

The ghost of link dumps past

So I was thinking to myself, self, you should do a link dump post so you can close out some of this cluttery crap in your browser. I go to start one, and what do I find? An old link dump post that I’d never published! So here’s an old link dump. Watch for a […]

Friends of the Earth Action endorses Obama; candidates spar over “gas tax holiday”

Green group Friends of the Earth Action endorsed Barack Obama for president on Saturday, citing his principled stand against a temporary suspension of the gasoline tax. “The ‘gas tax holiday’ debate is a defining moment in the presidential race,” said Friends of the Earth Action President Brent Blackwelder. “The two other candidates responded with sham […]

One of the West Coast’s most iconic species feeling the heat

California's outdoors industry -- wildlife watching, hunting, and fishing -- is an $8.2 billion-a-year business. That's roughly equivalent to the GDP of Cambodia.

So imagine the shock waves sent by the state's first salmon shutdown:

Salmon fishing was banned along the West Coast for the first time in 160 years Thursday, a decision that is expected to have a devastating economic impact on fishermen, dozens of businesses, tourism and boating.

Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez immediately declared a commercial fishery disaster, opening the door for Congress to appropriate money for anyone who will be economically harmed.

Unfortunately, the forecast for salmon doesn't get much better from there, according to a new report released Thursday by the National Wildlife Federation and Planning and Conservation League Foundation. With salmon habitat already decimated by dams, climate change now threatens to warm their remaining cold water spawning grounds.

What can be done to reverse the trend?

Kunstler meets Colbert

Painful:

Friday music blogging: The Ruby Suns

In 2005, New Zealand indie band The Ruby Suns put out a (self-titled) dreamy, beautiful psych-pop album that’s been one of my favorites for years. Now they’ve finally released the follow-up: Sea Lion. The product description at Amazon is unusually accurate: The melodic musings of “Sea Lion” found inspiration in the natural world and Ryan […]

Proposal to curb prices not likely to include ‘gas tax holiday’

Congressional Democrats are expected to announce their plan to counter the rising cost of gasoline as early as next Wednesday, and despite the pressure Sen. Hillary Clinton is putting on her congressional colleagues, it’s not likely to include a “gas tax holiday.” The plan being worked up by Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), Senate Majority Leader […]

Climate change must be examined over decades, not years

There has been a lot of nonsense written about the lack of much if any warming over the last few years. It's not a new argument -- in fact, I blogged about it here -- but like an axe-wielding psycho from a cheap horror flick, it just keeps coming back.

At times like this, it is always useful to look at the data. The figure below shows the temperature anomalies (relative to the 1961-1991 average) from 1850 to 2007. The data are the Hadley HadCRUT3v analysis.

On Clinton’s gas tax challenge

“Senator Clinton claimed yesterday that I either stand with her on this proposal or stand with the oil companies. To that I say: I stand with the families of Colorado, who aren’t looking for bumper sticker fixes that don’t fix anything, but for meaningful change that brings real relief and a new direction for our […]

Who’s looking into the circumstances of the Gade firing?

After yesterday’s news about the ouster of Mary Gade from the head of the EPA’s Midwest office, the next question is who, if anyone, is looking into whether her firing came at the behest of Dow Chemical and the White House. According to EPA spokesperson Jonathan Shradar, no internal investigation into the circumstances of Gade’s […]