Articles by Coby Beck

Sobering lessons from 250 million years ago

One of the very few reasonable points made by climate skeptics is that it's hard to have a great deal of confidence in computer-model predictions of a system as complex and varied as the global climate system. It is comprised of several subsystems -- the ocean, the atmosphere, the cryosphere, and the biosphere -- each extremely complex in its own right. There is some reassurance to be had in hindcasts and other modeling successes, not the least being the triumph of model predictions over the contradictory satellite records.

But there are really so many unknowns, both the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns, that it is reasonable to cast a suspicious eye on a forecast of global mean temperature in the year 2100. I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a climate scientist who would not admit it.

But the obfuscators and denialists fail to realize something critical: in decision-making, especially when potential futures are extremely bad, uncertainty is not your friend.

‘What about mid-century cooling?’–No one said CO2 is the only climate influence

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: There was global cooling in the '40s, '50s, and '60s, even while human greenhouse-gas emissions were rising. Clearly, temperature is not being driven by CO2.

‘The satellites show cooling’–No, they don’t

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: Satellite readings, which are much more accurate, show that the earth is in fact cooling.

I wonder how long before this one stops coming up?

‘It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga’–Weather and climate are different

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: It was way colder than normal today in Wagga Wagga, proof that there is no global warming.

Does this even deserve an answer? If we must ...