Climate Politics

Jim Manzi replies to Ryan Avent

The following is a guest essay from Jim Manzi, CEO of Applied Predictive Technologies (APT), an applied artificial intelligence software company. He writes occasionally for National Review and blogs at The American Scene.

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Last week on this site Ryan Avent presented a thoughtful response to my recent article at The American Scene arguing against a carbon tax. Grist has graciously invited me to reply.

As I understand it, Ryan had three basic criticisms of my logic:

1. the impacts of global warming will be more messy, unpredictable, and heartbreaking than I let on,
2. I don't understand the economic trade-offs that make a carbon tax an elegant solution to the problem, and
3. the technology-focused approach to the problem I propose is insufficiently conservative.

I'll try to address each of these in turn, all with a spirit of open-minded inquiry.

The first objection highlights the fact that productive global warming debates almost always hinge crucially upon predictions of the future. Consider three generic types of predictions: deterministic ("If I let go of this pencil, it will fall"), probabilistic ("If I flip this coin, it has a 50% chance of coming up heads and a 50% chance of coming up tails"), and uncertain predictions, for which we can not specify a reliable distribution of probabilities ("There will be a military coup in Pakistan in 2008"). Economists will immediately recognize the distinction between probabilistic and uncertain forecasts as, in essence, Knight's classic distinction between risk and uncertainty.

Strictly speaking, all predictions are uncertain, but as a practical matter we treat different predictions differently based on the observed reliability of the relevant predictive rules used to generate them.

No serious person believes that even the physical science projections for climate sensitivity (i.e., how many degrees hotter the world will get if we increase atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration according to some emissions scenario), never mind our predictions for how fast the world economy will grow or the economic impact of various degrees of climate change, are deterministic. This is why climate modelers and integrated climate-economics modelers spend so much time developing probability distributions for various outcomes and combining possible outcomes via odds-weighting to develop expected outcomes. When we hear a modeling group say "the expected outcome is X," it doesn't mean they've assumed only the most likely scenario will occur; it does mean, however, they assume their distribution of probabilities is correct (not being idiots, of course they constantly work hard to try to test and improve this distribution of probabilities).

For the moment, let's assume that predictions of global warming outcomes are probabilistic. I go into all this in my posts and articles in much greater detail, but if we take Nordhaus's DICE modeling group at Yale as a benchmark, we can make the following observations about global warming:

Gore will not serve under any future administration

Al Gore says that he will not serve in a future administration. If he returns to politics, which he still “does not expect” to do, it will be as a presidential candidate. Virtually every Dem candidate for president — most explicitly Obama — has dropped hints about recruiting Gore for their administration. Guess that won’t […]

Notable quotable

“And we ought to declare that we will be free of energy consumption in this country within a decade, bold as that is.” — Mike Huckabee, Republican presidential candidate, 10 Dec. 2007 [UPDATE: It appears Huckabee was misquoted in an early draft of the transcript. His quote now reads, “And we ought to declare that […]

Western states and feds agree to new pact on Colorado River drought rules

The seven states served by the Colorado River agreed with federal officials last week on new rules for how to manage the river’s all-important water in times of drought. The agreement stipulates through 2026 what water levels must be maintained in the region’s two main reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, triggering conservation measures when […]

Bali conference goes into second week

The latest from Bali: On Saturday, a draft text was produced suggesting that developed nations cut emissions between 25 and 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. The U.S. and Japanese delegations were displeased; by Monday, that target was reportedly dropped. Sen. John Kerry paid a visit to assure delegates, “I am convinced the politics […]

Greed versus green on the energy bill

This post is by ClimateProgress guest blogger Bill Becker, Executive Director of the Presidential Climate Action Project.

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As the new energy bill hit the Senate with a thud last week, we had to ask: Is it really so easy to stall vital public policy with tired old scare tactics? Last Friday, the answer was "yes."

One of the potholes the bill has encountered is its $13 billion take-back from Big Oil. The bill proposes to repeal tax breaks given to the industry by the Republican-controlled Congress in 2004-2005 and to close some tax loopholes that allow oil companies to game the system when they report income from foreign oil and gas extraction.

Predictably, the oil industry and the White House complained about a tax increase and warned of higher prices at the pump -- two time-tested themes to trigger knee-jerk opposition from the public.

Let's break it down.

Rudy Giuliani’s ties to dirty energy and efforts to kill the Senate energy bill

You might recall that a while back there was talk of a(nother) presidential forum on climate and energy, to be convened by Al Gore and Arnold Schwarzenegger in New Hampshire, involving all the candidates from both parties. Surely given the location, the subject, and the star power, no candidate could say no, right? Well, turns […]

Grassroots mobilizes over the weekend at int’l climate conference

Post by Will Bates, Stepitup 2007

The weekend has finished, and countries are diving into their second week in Bali of chit-chatting about what to do about climate change. While we may not be seeing much bold action so far at this round of negotiations, we know that global public pressure for urgent action is beginning to mount ...

Saturday was the third annual International Day of Action on Climate Change, which the Global Climate Campaign helped coordinate in more than 85 countries. Local groups and international activists have carried forth the message for urgent action in a big way here in Bali.

US and EU demand import-tariff reductions on stuff that they export

Wow, the latest out of Bali is really, um, something to behold: The US and the European Union found a rare common cause when they combined to ask developing nations to cut or remove tariffs on imports of environmental goods and services. Golly, why would developing nations not go for that? Other developing countries were […]

Henry Waxman weighs in on Bush admin. efforts to suppress climate science

The House Oversight committee has released its official report (PDF) on White House efforts to interfere with climate change science, and its conclusions are ... well, totally predictable. To wit:

The Committee's 16-month investigation reveals a systematic White House effort to censor climate scientists by controlling their access to the press and editing testimony to Congress. The White House was particularly active in stifling discussions of the link between increased hurricane intensity and global warming. The White House also sought to minimize the significance and certainty of climate change by extensively editing government climate change reports. Other actions taken by the White House involved editing EPA legal opinions and op-eds on climate change.

The sheer volume and magnitude of chicanery, when laid out in nearly 30 pages of detail, betrays a remarkably fastidious program of misinformation.

I suppose it's in the nature of things that many of the sub rosa efforts to tamper with the findings of real scientists would leak to the press and the Congress. After all, it's only Bush appointees who take an oath -- explicit or otherwise -- to uphold the president. The scientists who work in those appointees' agencies, on the other hand, were apparently pretty upset about all of this.