Maybe I’m not alarmist after all. Maybe this future is nearer than everyone thinks:


I was called “over-alarmist” by one of the people who took my bet that the Arctic would be ice-free by 2020. But one of the country’s top ice experts, non-alarmist Professor Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School, told an American Geophysical Union audience this week:

My claim is that the global climate models underestimate the amount of heat delivered to the sea ice.

Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007. So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.

No, I haven’t spent the $1000 yet, but I might take some more bets …

This post was created for, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.