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Unforgiving math

"This not a matter of politics or morality or right or wrong. It is simply the unforgiving math of accumulating emissions."

-- U.S. climate envoy Todd Stern, accompanying Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on her first visit to China

Chad fights charcoal in battle against creeping desert

NDJAMENA — Authorities in Chad are cracking down on the use of charcoal to save forests and keep the desert from advancing in the Saharan nation, but discontent is mounting over the tough measures. Sanctions that began coming into effect in December include torching vehicles carrying charcoal and arresting people transporting the product, law-and-order officials […]

Understanding polling in terms of core vs. general public

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it's the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead (1901-1978)

Almost every environmental organization uses this quote at some point. Mead's organizing truth is comforting to those laboring in the activist vineyards, but it is almost precisely opposite the actual approach we have taken, which would more appropriately be written ...

It goes without saying that a small group of thoughtful, committed program officers and professional staff can mold public opinion and shift voting patterns, which should change the world. Indeed, it's the only thing liberals have ever been known to do.

Recent polls show an abrupt decline in public support for environmentalism and concern about global warming, which undercuts the two central assumptions of US environmentalist strategy:

1. our main audience is the general public, to whom we must present a watered down climate story, and
2. our natural base of support is liberal Democrats.

Public support for protecting the environment, according to the recent Pew Center for People & the Press poll fell "precipitously," from 56 to 41 percent in one year, while global warming continued its downward slide, from 38 percent in 2007 to 35 percent in 2008 and 30 percent this year.

Most striking, support for environmental protection by liberal Democrats dropped 17 percent, from 74 to 57 percent, roughly the same rate as Republicans, down 19 percent, and independents, at 15 percent, and significantly higher than the 9 percent drop among moderate Democrats.

Obama's budget contains carbon auction revenue, but how much will be rebated to consumers?

A source close to Obama once told me, when I asked how serious the White House is about getting a climate bill this year, to watch the budget. If permit auction revenue is included, that should send a clear signal that this was no empty campaign promise.

Obama's budget outline won't be released until Thursday, but the New York Times has an early preview that includes this:

On energy policy, Mr. Obama's budget will show new revenues by 2012 from his proposal to require companies to buy permits from the government for greenhouse gas emissions above a certain cap. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the permits would raise up to $300 billion a year by 2020.

This is fairly sketchy. It doesn't say anything about the amount of new revenues projected by 2012, which would be a tip-off about the strength of the targets and the percentage of auctioned permits the administration expects. Perhaps on Thursday we'll get a clearer picture. But at the very least, this is an unmistakable sign that they're serious about a cap-and-trade program with (some) auctioned permits, and soon.

Now, here's a part I'm not as thrilled about:

Since companies would pass their costs on to customers, Mr. Obama would have the government use most of the revenues for relief to families to offset higher utility bills and related expenses. The remaining revenues would cover his proposals for $15 billion a year in spending and tax incentives to develop alternative energy.

There are lots of fans full rebating (sending back 100 percent of tax or auction revenue to taxpayers) in the Grist community. I am not one of them. I am not even particularly a fan of rebating "most" of auction revenue. The fact is, we need enormous public investments in green energy and infrastructure -- far beyond $15 billion a year. Rebates should be the minimal necessary to compensate those hardest hit by higher energy prices, and the rest of the revenue should go to investments in a green economy. After all, the best way to provide long-term relief to American consumers is to accelerate the clean energy transition.

Two encouraging signs that global climate treaties might be having the intended effect

Although rumors of its death may be exaggerated, the Kyoto Protocol hasn't so far been anyone's idea of a rip-roaring success. The question remains: is the international treaty fundamentally flawed, or is it a fixer-upper that bureaucrats are slowly tweaking into an effective carbon-fighting regulatory framework?

Two pieces of recent evidence boost the fixer-upper view. The first is a report from a prominent research group suggesting that a large part of the European Union's drop in carbon emissions last year are attributable to the cap.

EU emissions dropped by 3 percent in 2008. According to New Carbon Finance, 40 percent of this drop is due to Kyoto. Another 30 percent is due to the recession. Much of the drop came from a switchover from coal to natural gas.

To be sure, this is a modest improvement. The drop itself is small, and natural gas is still a fossil fuel. Nevertheless, this is how a carbon price works: gradual, steady pressure yields incremental movement toward cleaner technologies. The mechanism appears to be sound, and legislators are presently engaged in the political task of making the cap more stringent.

Life advice from the Oscars

"All my life, I've had the choice between love and hate. I chose love. And now I'm here."

-- A.R. Rahman, winner of two Academy Awards for his music in Slumdog Millionaire

Monbiot on nuclear

George Monbiot writes a column about nuclear power and conditions under which he would not oppose it.

1972 Datsun dominates drag strip

I put up a post in March of 2007 titled Electric cars: Going nowhere fast. It contained photos of electric cars available at the time. Erik Hoffner sent me this link in an email the other day. Coincidentally I ran across this same clip while channel surfing on TV that same night.

Conversions may outstrip production cars in the not too distant future, if somebody out there would just give us the battery we need at prices that we can afford. I've got my eye on this company.

Also, we need new resources …

"The time for implacable opposition, for going it alone, has passed. We need new approaches and greater adaptability if we are to achieve acceptance of fossil fuels as sustainable resources."

-- ConocoPhillips CEO James Mulva [PDF]

Geoengineering what?

China fires chemicals into the clouds to try to stimulate rain to end the drought. Days later, a huge and unexpected snowfall closes the highways into and out of the northern provinces, effectively shutting off economic activity.

Discuss.