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He shoulda been MotY

Congrats, you guys, for being named Person of the Year.

Personally, I think it's ridiculous Time didn't give that particular encomium to Al Gore. Has any individual ever before so fundamentally changed public debate on so technical a subject in such a short period of time? Not to mention the personal drama of his redemption, etc. Guess the folks at Time didn't want to get political ... oh, wait.

On a related note, Mr. Gore would like you to send a postcard.

‘Vineland was full of grapes’–Or was it an early advertising campaign?

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: Newfoundland was so warm in the Medieval Warm Period that when the Vikings landed they called it Vineland and brought boatloads of grapes back to Europe.

Answer: Once again: you can't draw conclusions about global climate from an anecdote about a single region, or even a few regions. You need detailed analysis of proxy climate indicators from around the world. These proxy reconstructions have shown that the Medieval Warm Period (around the time the Vikings are said to have discovered North America) was not as pronounced or as warm as today's warmth. From NOAA's paleoclimate website comes these quotes:

A look back

Here are the first five of my "Top 10 climate stories of 2006," in no particular order.

National Academy hockey stick report: I'm not sure if this helped or hurt the cause, but it did confirm what many scientists already thought: it's hard to figure out the temperature of the earth 1,000 years ago. The IPCC's 2001 report said there was a 3 in 4 chance that the 1990s were the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, of the last 1,000. According to the academy report, subsequent research suggests it's really a 50-50 proposition. In the end, we just don't know whether it was hotter 1,000 years ago or not. None of that, of course, affects our conclusion that humans are warming the climate.

‘The hockey stick is broken’–Well, no … but who’s playing hockey anyway?

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: The Hockey Stick graph -- the foundation of global warming theory -- has been shown to be scientifically invalid, perhaps even a fraud.

Answer: The first order of business here is to correct the mischaracterization of this single paleoclimate study as the "foundation" of global warming theory.

What's going on today is understood via study of today's data and today's best scientific theories. Reconstructions of past temperatures are about, well, the past. Study of the past can be informative for scientists, but it is not explanatory of the present nor is it predictive of the future. The scientific foundation of global warming theory contains much more than a few tree-rings and the temperature during the Medieval Warm Period.

RealClimate has an interesting article about what it would mean for today's climate theories if the MWP had indeed been warmer than today.

Now, about that pesky bit of sporting equipment ...

Yes, the last ice age started thawing over 20,000 years ago, but that stopped a long time ago

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: Global warming has been going on for the last 20,000 years.

Answer: It is true that 20,000 years ago the temperature was some 8 to 10° C colder than it is today. But to draw a line from that point to today and say, "look, 20K years of global warming!" is dubious and arbitrary at best.

If you have look at this graph of temperature, starting at a point when we were finishing the climb out of deep glaciation, you can clearly see that rapid warming ceased around 10,000 years ago (rapid relative to natural fluctuations, but not compared to the warming today, which is an order of magnitude faster). After a final little lift 8,000 years ago, temperature trended downward for the entire period of the Holocene. So the post-industrial revolution warming is the reversal of a many-thousand-year trend.

‘Greenland used to be green’–Don’t judge a book by its cover, much less a land by its name

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: When the Vikings settled it, Greenland was a lovely, hospitable island, not the frozen wasteland it is today. It was not until the Little Ice Age that it got so cold they abandoned it.

Answer: First, Greenland is part of a single region. It can not be necessarily taken to represent a global climate shift. See the post on the Medieval Warm Period for a global perspective on this time period. Briefly, the available proxy evidence indicates that global warmth during this period was not particularly pronounced, though some regions may have experienced greater warming than others.

Second, a quick reality check shows that Greenland's ice cap is hundreds of thousands of years old and covers over 80% of the island. The vast majority of land not under the ice sheet is rock and permafrost in the far north. How different could it have been just 1,000 years ago?

Below is a brief account of the Viking settlement, based on Jared Diamond's "Collapse".

What we’ve learned from the biofuels series

Future or folly? Photo: iStockphoto After spending much of the last several months thinking about the biofuels boom and its implications in preparation for this special series, we’ve come to a few conclusions. Like other energy sources, biofuels have significant environmental liabilities. Boosters’ rhetoric about “renewable energy” aside, topsoil — from which biofuel feedstocks spring […]

People power takes on a whole new meaning

He had a broad face and a round little belly that shook when he laughed like a bowl full of jelly. He was chubby and plump, a right jolly old elf, and I laughed when I saw him, in spite of myself.

Whale blubber once provided the fuel for the nation's lanterns. Could the human equivalent soon become the fuel of your future?

I'm inspired for my first post by Kate Sheppard's "You Want Me to Put What in My Tank?", in which she documents the growing interest in making biodiesel from unconventional sources.

One of those sources is human fat obtained from suction lipeptomy, commonly known as "liposuction." The trend was started by New Zealand biodiesel enthusiast Peter Bethune, who recently contributed some of his own fat toward his quest to break the round-the-world speed record in a powerboat fueled entirely by biodiesel. Now, it seems, a Norwegian company is close to signing an agreement with Miami, Florida's Jackson Memorial Hospital to produce biodiesel from blubber extracted during the hospital's liposuction operations (see "Fortune in Fat").

An interview with Mary Beth Stanek, General Motors energy director

Trucks with a green hue? GM is in heaven. What a difference three bucks a gallon makes. In the past year, General Motors has rallied state and federal support to get more E85 (an 85 percent ethanol, 15 percent gasoline blend) pumps at U.S. gas stations, launched a corn-hued marketing blitz, and announced that it […]

How a grassroots biodiesel group can show the way for others

The way that Rob Del Bueno backed into the world of biofuel almost by accident, as told in the article “Small Potatoes,” is emblematic of the way most folks get engaged in grassroots biofuel development. It starts with a desire to use a renewable fuel to power your life long before a GMO-happy megacorporation was […]