Climate Climate & Energy

It’s time to accept dire climate realities

((brightlines_include))

A review of recent climate science findings finds that Jim Hansen's bright-line standard and timeframe for global action [1.0ºC limit on further increase in global temperature / 475 ppm cap on atmospheric carbon with <10 years for global action] is, if anything, not conservative enough. A rash of recent reports identify major climate forcings wholly unaccounted for in IPCC models -- such as a five-fold increase in methane releases from Siberian peat bogs -- that support the view of rapid, discontinuous climate change predicted by Hansen.

Energy market projections show that current climate policies will barely dent the ramp-up of fossil fuel use and emissions. U.S. Energy Information Administration (DOE) International Energy Outlook 2006 projects energy-related carbon emissions to increase by 57%, from 25,028 million metric tons in 2003 to 43,676 million metric tons in 2030. Emissions reductions attributable to national environmental policies adopted in furtherance of the Kyoto agreement reduce the EIA reference case by just 58 million metric tons (<1%). Energy market sector leader emissions projections are in the same range; Exxon-Mobil projects an increase from 28 billion to 40 billion tons in the next 25 years (43%).

An increase in carbon emissions in the range 43-57% is more than sufficient to push global temperature above the bright line, roughly between 2020-2030. When the level of atmospheric carbon passes 475 ppm on an upward trajectory, we must assume that Hansen's simple and terrible story -- rapid collapse in Greenland and Antarctic ice shelves, resulting in sea level rise too high and too fast for either civilization or most species to adapt -- will be initiated within the lifetime of our children.

Umbra on home heating

Hi Umbra, My fiancée and I bought a house in October. We plan to green the house up as best we can, and one of our first projects will be how we heat the house. Since we didn’t have any money after buying, we had to limp through this winter with an oil-powered steam boiler […]

Rebuttal ad nauseum

I’m not sure there’s much value left in rebutting Dick Lindzen’s schtick every time it pops up. He keeps saying the same stuff, so the rebuttals keep saying the same stuff, and at this point anyone interested in the schtick or the rebuttal has a panoply of sources close at hand. Nonetheless, Newsweek‘s egregious bad […]

Disagree to Agree

U.N. Security Council hosts feisty climate debate Yesterday the U.N. Security Council held its first-ever debate on climate change, and the meat of the debate was — well, whether the debate should be happening at all. With 55 countries speaking, Britain led the pack of those arguing that climate change threatens global security, while China […]

Now This Is Corn-fusing

Study says ethanol fuel could cause more health problems than gasoline Time to trot out Alanis, cuz this is what the kids call “ironic”: a study from Stanford University says widespread use of ethanol in vehicles could have serious health effects. Atmospheric scientist Mark Jacobson ran computer models comparing air quality in 2020 based on […]

Where is it written that there’s an easy out to replace oil?

Another day, another story about cellulosic ethanol pointing out that, like the Star Wars missile system, it's a technology capable of sucking up endless tax dollars without ever producing anything that delivers in the real world.

Oh, It’s Unparalleled All Right

U.S. claims emissions-reduction success, U.N. Security Council debates climate Today, for the first time ever, the U.N. Security Council will take up the topic of climate change and world security. “The security implications of climate changes are bigger than we thought even two or three years ago,” says John Ashton, a climate lobbyist who pushed […]

Bill Bradlee and David Kroodsma, climate-fightin’ bike riders, answer questions

Bill Bradlee and David Kroodsma. What work do you do? How does it relate to the environment? David: Over the past 17 months, I bicycled from California to the southern tip of Argentina to raise awareness of the international consequences of global warming. I gave talks, visited schools, got in the media, and posted information […]

Hybrid power plant

I guess as a blogger in good standing I should have some kind of instant opinion on this, but I don’t: California approves the first "hybrid power plant" — 90% natural gas, 10% solar. So why did Inland Energy decide to make solar a relatively small part of its plant rather than the main power […]

Betting the heat

Here's an excerpt from a great article on global warming:

In 2005, Annan offered to take Lindzen, the MIT meteorologist, up on his bet that global temperatures in 20 years will be cooler than they are now. However, no wager was ever settled on because Lindzen wanted odds of 50-to-1 in his favor. This meant that for a $10,000 bet, Annan would have to pay Lindzen the entire sum if temperatures dropped, but receive only $200 if they rose.

"Richard Lindzen's words say that there is about a 50 percent chance of [global] cooling," Annan wrote about the bet. "His wallet thinks it is a 2 percent shot. Which do you believe?"

Talk is indeed cheap.