Back in April, scientists read the tea leaves — or, more accurately, heaps of data — and predicted an above-average hurricane season over the summer and autumn, with nine or 10 named storms, four of which could grow to major strength. Yet hurricane season ended Sunday without even one of them making landfall in the United States for the first time in a decade. That was extraordinary in a good way, but the season was also extraordinary in many bad ways.
So how did the U.S., which was walloped by Hurricane Helene and four other tropical cyclones last year, escape disaster even as the Caribbean suffered mightily from Melissa in September?
First off, forecasters could make those predictions in April by considering a few factors. Hurricanes are atmospheric engines fueled by warm water, and the Atlantic Ocean has been downright hot of late, meaning more juice for bigger storms. “The main consideration going into the season was just very, very warm ocean temperatures, either record-breaking in parts, or close to record-breaking,” said Brian McNoldy, a hurrica... Read more
