I think this Reuters article is password protected [Update: here’s a free version], but the gist is that two fairly knowledgeable sources — Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), chair of the Senate Energy Committee, and Frank O’Donnell of Clean Air Watch — said last week that climate legislation is highly unlikely to be passed in this session of Congress, mainly because Bush would almost certainly veto it.

Bingaman:

Major climate change legislation “is less likely than not” with Bush as president “given the position that he’s taken in opposition to any mandatory limits on greenhouse gases,” Bingaman told the Reuters Environment Summit in Washington.

O’Donnell:

“I think the likelihood of real legislation being enacted in this Congress is about as likely as a complete troop withdrawal from Iraq during President Bush’s term in office,” O’Donnell told the summit.

“In other words, it ain’t happening.”

This is in marked contrast to Joe Lieberman’s optimism.