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News, rumors, and outright malarkey on the American Clean Energy Security Act‘s big day in the U.S. House. Will be updated throughout the day.

Analysis from Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight:

I don’t think there are 41 solid ‘no’s in the Senate — not yet. There might be 37 or 38 or 39, but not 41. And as long as that’s the case, there’s some daylight for the White House. But it won’t be easy, and if environmental advocates didn’t like the version that came out of the House, they aren’t liable to be any more pleased with whatever has an opportunity to make it though the Senate.

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–Some people still don’t get it. Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN) “says that you can’t make steel or RV’s with windmills and solar panels. He is angry and speaking now about the impact of HR 2454″

–David Roberts wonders who was the Dem that switched from Yeah to Nay, literally at the last minute, taking count from 220 to 219?”

–Grist’s Kate Sheppard has already been looking at the efforts of green groups to strengthen the energy bill when it reaches the Senate.

–Oh noes! They’ve been withholding their best nickname. United State Representative Louie Gohmert called it a “crap-and-trade” bill.

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–Some “snap analysis” from Reuters.

Here are the final votes.

–The bill passes, C-SPAN reports. 219 to 212. Seven Republicans voted “yes” and 44 Democrats “no.” Republican votes for the bill: Reichert, Mack, Castle, Lo Biondo, McHugh, Smith (NJ), Lance, Kirk.

Much, much more coming on Grist.

–It’s halfway through the 15 minutes of voting time for the final passage. Right now it stands at 208 yea and 196 nay, according to C-SPAN. Seven GOP votes for the climate bill so far, but 35 Dem votes against.

–Republican amendment fails. On to the final vote!

–Boehner’s finished. House members are voting on the Republican amendment from Rep. John Forbes.

1sky sent along some reports from their volunteers who called House members today:

Stark, Fortney Pete (D-CA013) “Rep Stark is currently undecided. He is reviewing the 400 pages of the bill and is taking into account what is being said in the oral statements in Congress.” 

Bilbray, Brian P. (R-CA050) “Said Bilbray would be voting no. I said I would do the same for him when he is up for re-election.”

Clarke, Yvette D. (D-NY011) “The congresswoman is taking down names of supporters, and is interested in supporting the bill because of the large number of calls from this district.”

McCollum, Betty (D-MN004) She said Rep. McCollum is definitely voting in favor of HR 2454, and she will pass along my comments.

Holt, Rush D. (D-NJ012) Holt, Rush D. (D-NJ012) “Said Rush Holt was still making up his mind – which is ridiculous because Holt is considered environmentally friendly. I wonder if the bill is too weak for him to support?”

–Looooong speech by Minority Leader John Boehner, who’s paging through the bill. Is this the advent of the House filibuster?

–I’m told we can expect four votes coming up: One vote on GOP amendment, one vote on Waxman’s amendment, one vote on motion to recommit, and then a vote on final passage.

–Does Mother Nature Network know something the rest of the world doesn’t? “Climate change bill passes House, headed to Senate

House Democrats won a close vote today and passed the American Clean Energy and Security (ACES) Act after deals were struck with key conservative Democrats over farming offsets and CO2 allowances. The vote was mostly along party lines at 217 – 205, though 30 Democrats crossed over to vote against it.

The rule for debate on the bill, not the bill itself, passed 217-205 this morning, by the way.

In trying out this little news ticker/live blog/whatever, I told myself I wouldn’t just retweet things. Here are a few worth repeating:

–Florida Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen: “I know problem is real and manmade but don’t see this bill as solution. Costs r high on wrkng famls.”

–Kate points out this from Daily Kos:

Just got this email from a key Hill staffer: “I wanted to let you know that telephone calls into our office are skewed against the bill (and many are out of district), but emails are strongly skewed towards the bill. Seems like the new generation (those who know how to use the internet, unlike Joe Barton) is pro-addressing global warming.”

–Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer’s let’s-go speech also getting lots of Twitter praise in the #ACES stream. Says Tim DeChristopher, ” I wish I was in the room to slap Rep Hoyer’s ass. He’s a champ.”

–Texas Democrat Lloyd Doggett was a “no,” now he’s a “yes.” He just said so on the House floor. Friends of the Earth may have to update its video touting his opposition.

–The Blue Dog Coalition of conservative (or fiscally conservative) and generally rural Democrats doesn’t necessarily vote as a unified bloc, even as it works behind the scenes to promote its values. Many of the 50+ members are key swing votes on Waxman-Markey, and they could split any numbers of ways. Even the leadership is split–co-chair Baron Hill is a “yes”; co-chair Charlie Melancon is a “no”; co-chair Stephanie Herseth Sandlin says she’s a no but reportedly could still be swayed, and whip Heath Shuler seems undecided.

–Indiana sophomore Brad Ellsworth tells Evansville paper he’s opposed to the bill.

–Some more Democrats who still aren’t saying where they stand: Ben Chandler (Kentucky), Scott Murphy (New York), Neil Abercrombie (Hawaii)

–Washington state Dem Adam Smith is still deciding, a colleague who spoke with his press secretary tells me. Or maybe he’s not committing until he’s sure a vote will happen.

–Gene Taylor, Dem of Mississippi and one of the Carbon Nine, definitely opposes. Still calling it a Ponzi scheme.

–What might this bill do for the climate, anyway? Andrew Revkin steps back and considers.

–Minnesota Dem Tim Walz comes off the fence, on the “yes” side. Winona Daily News got the news from a Walz press release yesterday. Side note: Why don’t lawmakers post their news releases promptly on their Web sites. It’s the 21st century, folks.

–Georgia Dem David Scott comes off the fence. He says he’s a “yes.”

–Newt Gingrich’s new column: Stopping Cap-and-Trade is Like Stopping Communism in Poland. Wondering if he’s dialing for “no” votes today.

–Kate reports on props in floor debate: Latham (R-Iowa) has a box that says “To: China, From: The US Congress.” He pulls out hard hat that says “American Jobs.” Tim Murphy (R-Pa.) holds up a giant lump of coal. Not bad.

–Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Ohio) makes the argument “this bill is not perfect” but we still need it to get started (during House floor debate). NYT’s Paul Krugman makes a good counter-argument today: “Yes, the perfect is the enemy of the good; but so is the not-good-enough-to-work.” He was writing about health care, but the same tension applies to climate action.

–The “cap and tax” crowd on Twitter loves Dana Rohrbacher’s (R-CA) line, “If cap and tax passes, jobs will go to China & economy will go to hell.”

–Oregon’s Peter DeFazio, one of two Democrats ACES may lose on the left, sure doesn’t sound like a guy about to support the bill in this video.

–Ike Skelton of Missouri is a “yes,” he says on the floor.

–Artur Davis, Alabama representative and Democratic candidate for governor, defends his opposition to the bill on Youtube. “It’s a better bill than it was a few months ago” but it’s still a net loser for Alabama, he says.

–One freshman fence-sitter, Debbie Halverson (D-Ill.) commits to a “yes” vote after a chat with Obama.

–Conservatives start a rumor that Dems don’t have the the votes to pass ACES and are pulling it from the floor. Grist’s Kate Sheppard hears that it’s bogus. As in, not true.

–U.K. columnist George Monbiot has a devastating headline in the Guardian: Why do we allow the US to act like a failed state on climate change?” Familiar critiques of Waxman-Markey’s shortcomings, searing big-picture attack. Be kind, sir:

A combination of corporate money and an unregulated corporate media keeps America in the dark ages. This bill is the best we’re going to get for now because the corruption of public life in the United States has not been addressed.

Politico’s Arena has lots of opinions on “Should it pass?” A very informal survey of its contributers predicts it won’t pass.

Video clips from today’s debate in the House.

Help us figure out which way the fence sitters are leaning.